In Town or Out of Town? Research Team Michael Bach and Mark Thurstain -Goodwin of Geofutures Objective To determine the likely geography of new retail development over the next ten years and identify the key factors influencing this. Background to the research The UK is currently undergoing a wave of retail-led town centre redevelopment. Two factors are driving the extent and location of this wave of development:

Retail Location Tool In Town or Out of Town Retail Location Tool > Access for BCSC Members only Project Report In Town or Out of Town? > Download Executive Summary > Obtain the full report Press Releases IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST POLICY REVEALED BY BCSC RESEARCH 09/02/07 WARY WELCOME FOR BARKER REVIEW RECOMMENDATIONS 11/12/06

1. economic growth is creating demand for additional retail floorspace, and;
2. the planning system is preventing this development from being located out-of-town. It is likely, though there is no definitive proof of this, that in the absence of planning policy, most new retailing facilities would be located out-of-town, or at least in locations easily accessible to the private car.

Thus, it could be argued that, one of the factors driving the current strong growth of major grocers is their ability to offer non-food goods in locations suitable for carborne shopping. More broadly it might be argued that the trading performance of in town stores is:

1. hindered by lack of access to the private car, and;
2. is acutely vulnerable to changes in planning policy that would be more permissive to out-of-town development.

Although town centres seem reasonably well positioned to offer consumers the high quality shopping ‘experience’ they seek because of their extended food, leisure and cultural facilities, surveys indicate that the negative impact of poor access and high car parking costs (direct and indirect) more than offset these.

It is not intended that this project be based on new facts or original research though it will draw on the latest publicly available data and analysis. The project will provide a ‘critical analysis’ of the factors likely to influence the location of retailing activity over the next ten years. Clearly, trends in planning will be covered in depth. However the research will also consider the economics of retailing and the power of consumer demands.

Questions the research must answer

• How will planning policy in general change over the next ten years, if at all?
• How will retail planning policy change within this overall change? In particular, to what extent will the development of retail floorspace in nontown centre locations be permitted and will it vary by type of retail space?
• What would be the most plausible alternative scenario to the currently ‘accepted’ direction of retail planning policy? What might ‘trigger’ a change to an alternative scenario?
• Is there a broad enough political consensus to support the current direction of retail planning policy?
• Will the current emphasis on town centre retail development deliver the ‘high quality’ shopping experience that consumers increasingly demand?
• How will the UK retail hierarchy change over the next ten years or so?
• Is there any possibility that the prohibition on ‘out-of-town’ retail will change over the next ten years?
• To what extent will stores that are currently classified as food retailing convert to non-food? In other words, do trends within the grocery sector represent a continuation of the drift to out-of-town shopping ‘ by other means’?