Background to the research
A key factor driving post-war shopping centre development has been the growth in
use of the private car. Arguably, the drift out-of-town of retail facilities would have
been much greater, as in the US, were it not for the
planning system.
At the same time as the cost of car-ownership and use has fallen in absolute and
relative terms and the quality of car borne transportation has improved the cost of
public transport has risen and quality has fallen. Thus the number of cars on UK
roads continues to expand and the number of car borne shopping trips increase. The
demand for car-borne shopping from consumers seems insatiable. However, for a
variety of reasons, including concern for the environment, national and local policy is
to reduce usage/dependence on the private car.
The question is: will consumer demand or policy prevail over the next ten years? The
purpose of this project is to give a reasoned view on the likely evolution of modes of
transportation in the UK in the next ten years and the impact that this will have on the
retail environment. All of the key factors in this unfolding market place will need to
be considered: policy, attitudes, fuel prices, taxes and the rest.
Questions the research must answer
- How will the cost of transportation between home and shops change over the
next ten years? Cost estimates are to include direct costs (depreciation, petrol,
maintenance, taxes, fares, parking) and indirect costs (opportunity cost of
time) and quality of experience. In terms of the direct costs of motorised
transportation the two key drivers of overall cost are petrol prices and taxes.
Thus the research should present fully reasoned projections on these two
items and should look in detail at the likely development and impact of road
pricing.
- How will changes in the cost of transportation influence national and local
modal split? In other words what is the price elasticity of demand for the
various forms of motorised transportation?
- Will changes in the cost of transportation be offset by generally rising
incomes? In other words, what is the income elasticity of demand for
motorised transport and will it offset or reinforce the price effect?
- What are the likely changes in the transport infrastructure over the next ten
years? Transport infrastructure should be taken to mean: roads, over and
underground rail lines, cycle paths and pedestrian routes. To what extent will
these infrastructure developments change the pattern of accessibility in the
UK and, therefore, the pattern of shopper flows? In addition, to what extent
will any new infrastructure open up a need for new retail facilities?
- How will intra-urban transportation change over the next ten years, in
particular in London?
- Are any ‘innovations’ in transportation likely in the next ten years and how
might this impact on the usage of shopping places?
- Is the amount of car-parking space likely to increase or decrease over the next
ten years? Will the change in car parking space be commensurate with the
likely increase in car numbers?
- How important is transportation in the overall ‘shopping experience’? Is the
transportation likely to enhance or detract from the ‘shopping experience’
over the next ten years?
- To what extent are transportation preferences affected by income, social grouping
and life stage? Do older shoppers prefer cars?
- Is it likely that the efficiency of the road system will be improved by better
management? Has 24 hour shopping the potential reduce congestion?
