The In Town or Out of Town application from BCSC has been updated with retail completions data for 2006, 2007 and 2008. Development pipeline data to the end of 2008 has also been added. Note that 2008 data is provisional, awaiting final verification by data supplier PMA.

When the original data were released in 2007, it appeared that PPS6 was showing signs of having worked, although the lead time before town centre developments increased had been long. (See Michael Bach’s commentary published at the time.) What has been happening since?

In 2006 and 2007, we can see that the completions pattern was broadly the same as the preceding years, with about 30% of all GB’s retail development occurring in town centres.

In 2008 however, we witnessed a step-change in the volume of in-town and edge-of town completions. 48% of GB retail completions were within town centre boundaries, and a marked drop in the volume of space being completed outside urban areas was also evident.

Within this national picture there are marked variations. Of the 2008 completions within town centres, 92% were in England, 5% in Wales and 3% in Scotland. A number of high-profile major retail centres were completed in 2008; does this imply that most shopping centre development was centred in major English centres?

About 43% of all GB retail development occurred in shopping centres (see definition behind the ‘I’ symbol on the homepage). Of these completions, nearly 80% were within town centre boundaries, with much of the remainder on the edge of town centres, especially around central London.

50% of these in-town shopping centre developments were found in the nine metropolitan and major regional city centres. 4% were in regional town centres and approximately 7% in major sub-regional centres.

But if we look at the 2008 data, we find that a quarter of all shopping centre completions (10% out of the total 40% share) occurred in major district town centres – towns the size of Maidenhead or Rugby. Is this relatively strong showing further down the retail hierarchy set to continue?

Shopping centres account for 30.7% of total GB floorspace in the development pipeline, more than two-thirds of which is planned for or under construction in town centres. Retail warehouse units represent 35% of the total GB pipeline, of which only 10% is within town centres. Superstores make up 20% with one fifth inside the town centre boundary. These are spread relatively evenly across the upper half of the retail hierarchy.

30% of the shopping centre retail pipeline is currently under construction. Half has planning permission and 20% is in the application process. In the current property market we cannot predict how many of these developments will get built, and if so, how soon. From the in-town completion peak in 2008 it seems inevitable that floorspace completion totals must fall, but the share of likely future completions within town centres suggests that currently, PPS6 is doing its job.