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A total of roughly 4.6 million sq m (49.51 million sq ft) of new retail space, is currently under construction, being renovated or being planned in more than 140 different developments across the UK and Ireland according to the latest figures from retail property organisation, BCSC and leading retail agent, Lunson Mitchenall. Of this total, 1.3m sq m (14m sq ft) is estimated to be currently under construction with 0.7m sq m (7.5m sq ft) set to open next year while 1.3m sq m (14m sq ft) has planning permission for development.
Interestingly when you look at the proposed commercial space, the retail property industry is looking to develop a staggering 7 million sq m (75.34 million sq ft). Many developments include, leisure, residential and office provision clearly indicating that the industry is looking to provide truly mixed-use schemes fulfilling the needs of our experience driven consumers.
It is also clear that they are now looking to provide convenient living space for the new urbanite. Making some assumptions on the number of affordable homes and the type of accommodation that will be provided it can be seen that 2.5million sq m (26.91 million sq ft) will be provided which is equivalent to about 36,000 units with 17,000 of those destined for London.
Analysis by Lunson Mitchenall suggests there is a more complex picture in terms of when developments will actually open. A comparison of the proposed opening dates for new schemes shows a lower level of new openings in 2007 than originally proposed with delivery peaks in 2008, 2010 and 2012.
Lunson Mitchenall also estimates that of the total new space planned, around 35% will replace existing floorspace suggesting an actual net increase of around 3.1 million sq m (33 million sq ft).
The most comprehensive survey of its type, What’s in the pipeline 2007 identifies and details all retail-led developments of over 5,000 sq m (53,820 sq ft) of total gross leasable retail floorspace and includes schemes at all stages of the development process from initial proposals to those currently being built.
The following table reviews the number of schemes in the delivery pipeline and shows the numbers and proportion of space taken up by major schemes (i.e. those over 600,000 sq ft/55,740 sq m of retail space).
Year
Number of centres opening
Number of major centres over 600,000 sq ft opening
Percentage of total new space provided by the new centres over 600,000 sq ft
2007
20
1
22%
2008
16
4
65%
2009
17
0
0%
2010
27
1
11%
2011
18
1
13%*
2012
20
5
40%
After 2012
15
8
86%
* Phase 1 of a 2 phase development of over 600,000 sq ft (55,740 sq m)
The number of centres opening each year between 2007 to 2012 - with the exception of 2010 - is remarkably consistent. The peaks in 2008 and 2012 reflect the higher number of larger schemes opening in these years. 2010 has a considerably higher number of scheme openings likely, although only one is classified as a major scheme.
Major schemes represent over 40% of all the space in the pipeline and a high proportion is expected to be delivered after 2012. As a result, a greater percentage of all the planned space due to be delivered after 2012 falls within this definition representing around 15% of all the space in the pipeline although longer-term projects are much less predictable in delivery terms.
To put the results into a UK wide geographical context, the results have been broken down into 10 broad areas. In total overall terms the Midlands area has the largest amount of development in the pipeline, with close to 600,000 sq m (6.46 million sq ft) of retail space either with planning consent or already on-site. Looking specifically at developments already on site, the North West has the largest amount of new retail space - over 300,000 sq m (3.23 million sq ft) - currently under construction. This is mainly due to a small number of large regeneration developments which are regenerating and replacing rather than providing new space.
Tables below show breakdowns of the results by geographical area ranked by the amount of space ‘on site’ and by the amount of space ‘with planning’.
Table 1 :
Geographical breakdown of retail development pipeline ranked by space ‘with planning consent’Area
With planning (sq m)
Rank
Midlands
374,701
1
London
310,200
2
North West
159,127
3
South East
111,830
4
North East
92,899
5
Wales
89,891
6
Scotland
45,684
7
South West
36,602
8
Northern Ireland
16,897
9
East Anglia
6,000
10
1,243,831
Table 2 :
Geographical breakdown of retail development pipeline ranked by space ‘on site ’Area
On site (sq m)
Rank
North West
333,612
1
London
266,361
2
Midlands
222,497
3
Scotland
204,846
4
South West
174,203
5
South East
125,747
6
North East
82,740
7
Northern Ireland
71,071
8
East Anglia
39,947
9
Wales
31,487
10
1,552,241
Comments Michael Green, Chief Executive of BCSC:
“The UK continues to maintain a dynamic pace on the pipeline development front and these statistics clearly illustrate the industry’s race to offer fresh, accessible, inviting retail-led places in order to meet customers’ complex expectations. A significant proportion of pipeline development may well be replacement space, but this just serves to underline the industry’s commitment to careful reassessment and renewal – particularly important in view of the intense competition for shoppers’ time and loyalty."Neil Mitchenall, Director at Lunson Mitchenall comments:
“Our analysis highlights both the length of time it takes to deliver the space proposed as well as the fact that the concentration of this space is in larger schemes predominately in major city centres. It demonstrates a commitment by developers to take a long-term view in seeking to deliver complex and challenging developments - now mainly mixed-use - that make wholesale changes in the retail offer in a given location. Developments such as Cabot Circus in Bristol, Paradise Street in Liverpool and Westfield London in West London, which are all due to open next year, demonstrate how city centres can seek to be regenerated and recapture consumer spend.”
